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250 of 280 found the following review helpful:
Pulls No Punches! Sep 17, 2007
By Loyd E. Eskildson
"Pragmatist"
Greenspan calls "The Age of Turbulence" a "psychoanalysis of himself." It begins (first half) with his early life, describing the events that provided his learning experiences (including his desire to become a baseball player, then a jazz musician), and then goes to his life of implementing those lessons.
Undoubtedly the most interesting material included Greenspan's evaluations of the Presidents he had worked with. His observations were not the platitudes one might have expected. "Nixon was very smart, paranoid," and was an equal-opportunity disparager of all ethnic groups. Ford was the most normal, and sometimes looked past politics to focus on the ethics of an issue. Reagan's ability to spout seemingless endless one-liners and stories was an "odd form of intelligence," according to Greenspan. Greenspan felt his relationship with Bush I was a disaster, with the President eventually blaming Greenspan for his losing the election to Clinton. Clinton, however, was most like a soul-mate to Greenspan - very intelligent, and one constantly working to soak up knowledge and understanding. Greenspan also labeled Clinton's '93 economic plan that focused on reducing the deficit as an "act of political courage." Finally, Greenspan's assessment of Bush II was that he was incurious about the effects of his own economic policy, and that Greenspan's biggest frustration with Bush II was his failure to veto any spending bills.
Greenspan was told that Bush thought he could better control Speaker Hastert and Whip Delay by signing the spending bills; they, however, were never reticent to spend more money to help assure more Republican congressmen. Greenspan also added that he disagreed with Bush II's supply-side economic thinking, and that his endorsement of "A" tax cut during 2001 was just that - not an endorsement of Bush's plan. Another problem was that the plan had no adjustment mechanism in the event assumptions did not pan out and the deficit began to rear up again.
On the other hand, Greenspan does not tell the whole story. According to Paul Krugman (New York Times, 9/17/07), he could have clarified himself a few weeks later when he appeared before a Senate committee on the same topic and evaded questions on whether the proposed tax cuts were too large. Two years later when more cuts were proposed, Greenspan did not object, and in 2004 he expressed support for making the Bush cuts permanent - accompanied by cuts in Social Security beneifts that he assured Congress in 2001 would not be threatened by the cuts.
The most incendiary comment in the book was clearly Greenspan's conclusion that the Iraq War II was all about oil. However, Greenspan is now "clarifying" his statement to Greenspan having told the White House that removing Saddam was "essential" to secure world oil supplies, and now stating (Washington Post interview, 9/17/07) that securing global oil supplies was "not the administration's motive."
Greenspan was initially elated when Bush II won, and brought in his old friends Cheney and Rumsfeld. However, he noted that "they changed," and that he did not agree with Cheney's "deficit's don't matter." There also seemed to be little value placed on rigorous economic policy debate or weighing long-term policy consequences - policy-making was firmly in the hands of White House staff (Rove, et al). A result was that Bush II's first two Treasury Secretaries (O-Neill, Snow) were essentially powerless. Summarizing, Greenspan saw the Republicans in '04 as having swapped principle for power, ending up with neither, and deserving to lose in '06. The "good news" was that they did not try to interfere with monetary policy.
Greenspan has come under increasing criticism himself for the current housing collapse and preceding bubble. His defense, in "The Age of Turbulence," was that the risk of broadening home ownership was worth the risk, that he didn't realize shady practices had grown so prevalent, and had tried raising mortgage rates in '04 and '05 by hiking rates on ten-year Federal notes (no impact).
Finally, looking to the future, Greenspan sees a need to raise taxes on energy to encourage conservation, and a risk of increased inflation - already prices are rising in China. As for ethanol, even if all U.S. corn was converted to ethanol, it would only provide less than 20% of our current oil usage.
An interesting and timely book!
32 of 37 found the following review helpful:
 Tell Me Something I Don't Know. Dec 05, 2007
By mirasreviews
Reaction to Alan Greenspan's much-anticipated memoir will undoubtedly vary widely depending upon the audience. "The Age of Turbulence" is part autobiography of the former Federal Reserve Chairman's professional life and part exposition of his views of the global economy, united by Greenspan's ongoing efforts to understand this new economy that is "vastly more flexible, resilient, open, self-correcting, and fast-changing than it was even a quarter century earlier." The book is written with the curious layperson in mind. In contrast to Fedspeak, Greenspan's style is straightforward and as fluid as it can be considering that he toils in the world of facts and figures. As a primer on the global economy, it is too long but basically good providing you don't take it as gospel.
Greenspan takes us through his Washington Heights childhood, his admiration for the ideas of Adam Smith and Ayn Rand, to his career in macroeconomic forecasting, then through 4 decades in public service, including nearly 19 years as Chairman of the Fed. If you're looking for the rationale behind the Fed lowering the fund rate 3 times in fall 1998, mid-tech stock bubble, or decreasing the rate to 1% in 2003 and leaving it there for a year, precipitating a housing and credit bubble, well....there's not much here. He justifies 1998 with some nebulous notion of a "small by real risk" of global malaise. He justifies 2003 as an urgent effort to avert deflation. That's funny, because if the CPI were calculated by the same method as when Greenspan raised rates to combat inflation in 1987, his first action as Chairman, the inflation rate would have been 4%. By "funny", I mean "disingenuous".
In the second half of the book, Greenspan presents his conclusions about the state of the global economy and its future. He begins with a brief history of capitalism and goes on to discuss, chapter by chapter, the economic successes and challenges of recent decades in Japan, China, India, Russia, and Latin America. He argues for less consternation over the US trade deficit, against protectionism and most regulation, and analyzes the state of Social Security and energy supply and consumption. I found his view of Latin America's "economic populism", which lacks the conceptual framework of socialism, insightful. He is dismissive of Russia's accomplishments under Putin. And he should avoid the subjects of education and workforce skills, as he demonstrates ignorance there.
Alan Greenspan is an articulate and convincing spokesman for market capitalism and globalization. He explains the transition from manufacturing to a service economy in the US in a way that anyone can understand. This is where "The Age of Turbulence" excels. But he is an apologist for free-spending neocons and Boris Yeltsin, of all people. Too much of his analysis is based on understated inflation rates, which he should well know, since he was instrumental in trying to change the way CPI is calculated. I always regarded Greenspan as a smart man, well-intentioned, but dangerously susceptible to political pressures. After reading what he has to say, I think less of him, even though I am generally in agreement with his economic worldview. Bright, educated, but politically naïve and wanting far too much to be liked, Greenspan is too ingratiating and his rationalizations too clumsy in print. After 500 pages of this, I feel it wasn't worth my time.
105 of 131 found the following review helpful:
 A Truly Fascinating Look into Greenspan, Economics, and US Policy Sep 17, 2007
By Ray
"A Reader"
Greenspan's "The Age of Turbulence" is a tour de force, an incredibly engaging, insightful, and detailed look, not only at the life and history of the most famous economist of the U.S., but of the key economic events that have shaken, molded, and served as the crucible for the global economy of the 21st century. Make no mistake about it: this is a book that will easily become a de facto standard of the genre, and will remain so for years to come.
From the opening pages of Greenspan's introduction we immediately become aware that this book is exceptionally and surprisingly well written, and that Greenspan has somehow managed to coalesce the mountains of knowledge and experiences he has accumulated over some six decades of public life into an imminently accessible and, yes, understandable, text. The book opens up with Greenspan's flight back from Switzerland on 9/11, and the interruption of that flight with the news of what had happened in New York City that day. Greenspan peels back the history and lets us in on his many thoughts as his flight made an emergency return to Zurich, and then, subsequently, during his interactions in the weeks that followed with persons at all levels of the government and the banking system. As he lays out his story, we are introduced to numerous asides which explain to us many aspects of the economic system with which we may not yet fully understand or comprehend, and Greenspan deftly intertwines such didactic content in with these life events in a manner that makes us learn as we go, all the while not even realizing we are being educated as we proceed.
The book proper continues with this approach of mixing personal history with mini-lessons of economics, first starting with his childhood in New York, then moving to his teen and adolescent years, his PhD work, and his eventual move into government service. We read about his childhood fascination with numbers, his studies at Julliard in music, his love of baseball, his skill in conquering huge masses of data wherever he found them, and see in his upbringing the traits that would serve him (and us) so well in his eventual role as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank. The book is essentially broken into two parts: the first, in which Greenspan draws us through his own learning path through the years so that we can understand how he came to master individual economic events and systems; and the second, the application of these lessons learned toward attempting to understand what he calls today's new global economy. The sweep of the story is grand, and leaves little left unturned. We are allowed to peer into Greenspan's insights and thinking concerning Black Monday, the fall of the Berlin Wall, the Rise of China, the role of Russia in world economics, the dot com bubble and burst, and, of course, the effect of globalization as it was ensconced immediately after World War II and how it appears today. In it, Greenspan not only makes his formidable knowledge of all these subjects known, but he also tells us his beliefs about many of them, and even tries to tell us how he thinks things may look a quarter of a century from now.
Perhaps most interesting in this volume beyond its educational aspects is reading about Greenspan's inner feelings about the various personages and events with which he interacted over the years. His comments about meeting Ayn Raynd, and the impact her thinking played upon his own, are both humorous and honest. His thoughts about Nixon, which he explicates - both good and bad - yield more insight that can be used whenever we study that portion of history. His comments on Ford, Reagan, and Clinton are also quite interesting, and it is a study in personality to see how he contrasts and compares these people as he winds out his story. Its a real "extra" for readers of the Greenspan's story.
A book that is as engaging as it is insightful, "The Age of Turbulence" is truly a "must-read" for nearly anyone interested in financial markets, capitalism, global economics, and the role of U.S. foreign (and domestic) policy. Buy it to learn and to become better educated, but read it to enjoy and savor. I'll bet you'll be as surprised as I at just how truly fascinating the work turns out to be.
10 of 11 found the following review helpful:
 self serving Feb 12, 2008
By Jim
I think this book is more about Greenspan's own ego playing on the world stage than it is about the job of the Federal Reserve. His descriptions of working with and insights into the personalities of U.S. Presidents beginning with Richard Nixon are interesting.
However, I got the distinct impression that he disliked doing the nitty gritty work of the Federal Reserve in favor of being known as a player on the world stage. For example, he quickly skims his involvement with the Savings & Loan Crisis in the late 1980's and 90's complaining about how much time he spent "...it was like having a second job..." and minimizing his professional consulting work for Charles Keating and Lincoln Savings & Loan. He had nothing to say about homeowners victimized by S & L's during that period, although one of the primary responsibilities of the Federal Reserve is the protection of the credit rights of consumers (See the Federal Reserve's website). He acknowledges that the domestic economic forecasting work was the result of a highly competent Federal Reserve staff. And the good economic times in the later 1990's were a function of President Clinton's economic astuteness and Pay-Go discipline in the Republican Congress.
I also think he bears more responsibility than he acknowledges for the current mortgage crisis. He happened to terminate in January, 2006 just before the current crisis mushroomed.
117 of 158 found the following review helpful:
Intelligent and Fascinating Sep 17, 2007
By R. Spell
"raspell"
Borrowing from a famous investment banking commercial, "when Alan Greenspan talks, people listen". And that's how this book should be approached. This one man, not a president, has had more to do with the everyday life of Americans aged 65 and under than anyone else. Crisis after crisis has been thrown at us and he has deftly defended our economy. It would have been interesting to see how he would have handled the Volker era of high interest rates in the late 70s/early 80s.
So let's get to the most controversial area of the book, did he leave interest rates too low too long after 9/11, and should he have attacked subprime lenders? Hindsight builds confidence in critics but our economy did not falter and he builds a compelling case that following the info he had, keeping us from a recession was the most important point. As to housing bubble caused by low interest rates and poor lending practices, it is a compelling case that worries of deflation and how Japan lost control of this in the 80's/90's was significant to the Fed's policy. Should subprime lending have been stopped or slowed? Without a question. But is it the job of the Fed? Greenspan will continue to catch criticism but it is not part of the role of the Fed IMO. The system worked. I-Bankers stretched lending more and more to generate bonds which hedge funds then bought the riskiest tranches. That is where the losses are. That plus the marginal borrowers who should not have been in the loans.
What this book does a great job of is giving you insight into the workings of the finance of our govt. for the past 40 years. Reading in the 60s with no computers how the field of economics evolved from hand calculating massive data is hard to believe in today's computer world. The chronological review of his involvement is nothing short of fascinating. Generally, he confirms what has been reported of all the Presidents: Nixon - extremely intelligent with a dark side, Ford - a consensus builder, the lost art in today's politics, Reagan - not much interaction but a guy that knew what he wanted to accomplish and did it with a story, Bush I - the relationship soured based on interest rates but great respect for the man. And that leaves us with last two, Clinton and Bush II. There is no reason for him to like Clinton, different parties, different influences, etc. But Clinton won over Greenspan by focusing on the difficult political agenda of lowering the deficit. This is difficult as it does not have immediate impact to the constituents. Bush II was from the same party and Greenspan agreed to Bush's initial tax cuts. How could their relationship sour? Well, budget deficits returned and Bush maintained total economic interest in cutting taxes whether it was the right thing to do or not. I voted for Bush twice but Greenspan's narrative is subtly scathing.
From this fascinating financial history covering the first 248 pages the book transcends to an open discussion of economic theory and case studies of virtually all other major countries and his feelings of their economic issues. This part of the book is also exceptional but does read slower. It's two different books. If this is not your cup of tea, then stop at page 248.
In closing, I would suggest readers leave their political leanings out of the book and explore the man behind the critical decisions of the last 25 or so years and how it impacted your life. That is the critical issue and importance of the book. Overall, this is one of the most significant books I have read in my life, a must read for Americans enjoying our economy for the last 20 years or those wanting to learn about how our economy and government work. Should be required reading in college economics.
SIDEBAR: Two years ago I attended a Washington Redskins game in a box of a minority owner. Sitting next to me but on the other side of glass was Greenspan in Daniel Snyder's box. There was no person I would have rather met just to deliver the message of thanks for leading our economy brilliantly in a fascinating time!
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